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The historic Ashes series may offer a reason to cheer, but this contest will also see the Australian team celebrate more birthday parties than an arcade in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald had his thirty-first birthday a day prior to the team was announced. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day before the Test in Perth. Beau Webster reaches 32 just ahead of Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is over.

Ageing Squad Interest Builds

For two or three years there has been growing curiosity with the age of this team and especially the bowling attack. It is rare to have almost every player in a Test side being above thirty, aside from novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that greater age was a problem: a Test squad boasting a four-man attack with 1,568 wickets between them is scarcely a weakness, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are deep into their professional lives.

I've never felt this sure at the beginning of an Ashes tour | a former player

Perhaps what most amplified the talking point is that the backup bowlers over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their 30s. Emerging pacemen have floated into teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injury, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Transition Forced by Injuries

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the core four plus Boland have kept on backing up. Any side knows that having a group of similarly-aged players might mean a batch of simultaneous retirements, but so far change has remained theoretical: a train that would certainly be arriving the bend when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet steamed into view.

Now, abruptly, change is here, forced upon this Australian squad in the space of a few weeks. The back injury to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would likely only miss the first Test, was the team management view, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring strain, the team balance undergoes a much more significant change with two key bowlers missing rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the stability and precision that enables Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a weapon of attack. Missing both of them means a major adjustment in the balance of the side. Boland handling the new ball is not unusual in his first-class career, but he has been so successful in Test matches coming on after seven to eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll likely have to be the man up front.

Debutant Faces Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself won’t be an intimidated youngster, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A full stadium crowd, half of it English, for the first Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many newspaper profiles describe him as relaxed. He could be wheeled onto the field on a sun lounger and still be nervous.

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It's uncertain, it might all go swimmingly for this new attack. It might not work out. What is notable is how quickly Australia have transitioned from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, and others. Who knows what new injuries the first Test may cause. It's unknown whether Cummins will be fit for Brisbane, and good to back up after that match, given how tricky stress fractures can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be out, with a track record of going down early in series and a pattern of initially small injuries turning into longer layoffs.

Future Uncertain

The back half of the series may witness the main four bowlers back together and all going well. Or it might see transition beginning much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is seemingly next in line and could be a great day-night Brisbane option, but beyond that with choices unclear. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also hurt and has not yet played a Test. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm put back on, and this format is no place for easing into one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all opportunity for the opposing side. You can sense that change approaching, rolling round the bend, and England hasn't seen the sunshine since they can't recall when.