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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, although experts suggest PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and established a four-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June over a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a election period focused on topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant division means that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of government. However, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations may require several months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.