Why Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an impending US-Russia presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he intended to confer with Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, too.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."
- Donald Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
- Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves White House without results
The frequently changing meeting is just the latest development in the president's efforts to broker an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a truce and hostage release agreement in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in the North African country last week to celebrate that truce deal, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he said.
However, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost four years.
Reduced Influence
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was Israel's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave Trump bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president gained from a history of siding with the Israeli state since his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, actually, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.
Combine the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has much less influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the war.
Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then back off in the face of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the entire region.
The president loves to tout his skill to sit down and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the war any closer to a resolution.
The Russian president may actually be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.
During the summer, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.
Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned the US president who then promoted the possible meeting in Budapest.
The next day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.
Trump maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"You know, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he remarked.
However the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.
So, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially urging Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately settled on calling for a truce along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.
On the campaign trail last year, the candidate promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, admitting that concluding the hostilities is turning out harder than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a peace plan when both parties wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.